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PROSPECTIVE OF UKRAINE CRISIS: SCENARIOS FOR A MID-LONGTERM EVOLUTION

PROSPECTIVE OF UKRAINE CRISIS: SCENARIOS FOR A MID-LONGTERM EVOLUTION

PROSPECTIVE OF UKRAINE CRISIS: SCENARIOS FOR A MID-LONGTERM EVOLUTION

The present work is the first public prospective study elaborated in Romania according to a classic technique transformed into a model by the Conflict Prevention and Early Warning Center Bucharest. It is the result of a GMF project developed between April and July 2014 on a very hot  issue, the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, including the annexation of Crimea and ending now with the hybrid war in the Eastern regions of Lugansk and  Donetsk of Ukraine….

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THE EAST-WEST BLACK SEA – CASPIAN SEA STRATEGIC CORRIDOR

THE EAST-WEST BLACK SEA – CASPIAN SEA STRATEGIC CORRIDOR

The East –West Caspian Sea – Black Sea Strategic Corridor is a book that tries to elaborate on a vision and a concept that is aimed at linking the land locked Central Asia with the border of EU and NATO, e.g. Romania, on the
West shore of the Black Sea. The project that emerged from this concept is covering 5 tracks, some already under development as a natural consequence of the previous cooperation: energy, transport, military transport, investment and trade.
The book tried to cover the full range of pros and cons for such a project. In four conceptual and theoretical chapters it showed the current situation of the global scene, in the region of Central Asia, in the Caucasus, the Caspian
Sea Area and, finally, is presenting the thinking and the vision of the East-West Corridor, including the benefits it brings to littoral countries and the countries involved in such an endeavor, but also, considering the challenges
to that project and possible blockages.
The book investigates, using people on the ground and outside views, the interests of the countries on that Corridor, namely Georgia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, but also the interests of the big
powers in the region and the added value of this project for the respective policies – Turkey and Russia – as well as other littoral countries that could be involved, are interested and could gain dividends from this construction.
In nine chapters all those views are covered in a coherent puzzle that shows everybody how different actors of the region see the construction of such a Corridor, how this fits into their pre-existent policies and what would be the
added value for each one if the project is concluded…

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IULIAN CHIFU – GÂNDIRE STRATEGICÃ

IULIAN CHIFU – GÂNDIRE STRATEGICÃ

Cartea domnului Iulian Chifu intitulată „Gândire Strategică“ este o dovadă de mare temeritate din partea autorului. În primul rând pentru că într-o societate dominată de „mica politică“ abordarea unei asemena teme apare ca fiind insolită și nerelevantă pentru majoritatea actorilor politici. În al doilea rând, pentru că temele concrete pe care le abordează sunt, multe dintre ele, cum ar fi „coabitarea“, teme care fac obiectul unor dezbateri publice contradictorii. Toate acestea, în opinia mea, nu fac decât să sublinieze importanța lucrării care se constituie într-o adevărată pledoarie în favoarea unei idei, extrem de importante și de actuale, aceea a necesității unei viziuni românești asupra unei strategii naționale, transpartinică și pe termen lung, în domeniul politicii externe, a securității și apărării, pe care autorul o denumește „Mare strategie“. Argumentele sale referitoare la nevoia de a nu irosi resursele, mai exact de a valorifica la maximum resursele existente prin utilizarea integrată a tuturor instrumentelor la dispoziția unui Stat pot și trebuie să fie completate cu argumentul forte că în lipsa unei asemenea strategii politica externă a României riscă să fie lipsită „de busolă“ și să aibă un caracter de improvizație sau reacție la diferite evenimente care se petrec pe plan internațional așa cum s-a întâmplat după epuizarea obiectivului strategic al aderării țării noaste la sistemul instituțiilor euro-atlantice, în primul rând NATO și Uniunea Europeană.

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RELIGION AND CONFLICT RADICALIZATION AND VIOLENCE IN THE WIDER BLACK SEA REGION

RELIGION AND CONFLICT RADICALIZATION AND VIOLENCE IN THE WIDER BLACK SEA REGION

The definition of conflicts can be found in many disciplines and schools of thought and has been worded in various  manners. As a result, as conflict is a common place, many specialized courses even avoid a definition as such1. In the academic world, in the field of international and even intranational conflicts, we operate with a definition2 that includes, invariably, the existence of two or more parts that want, at the same time, an element of power — authority, resources, or prestige/status, that have the resources and are willing to spend them and even decide to spend them with a view to obtain the element that they want. The definition captures, simultaneously, the three fundamental elements of power: authority — political power, resources — economic power and symbolic power — prestige, recognized status (power issues note). Obviously, there are variations that emphasize more on interests — political, economic, status — or on authority (instead of power) — political, economic or symbolic, but the essence and substance of the three dimensions are found or reproduced in any formula.

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Energy Security in the Wider Black Sea Region

Energy Security in the Wider Black Sea Region

Authors: Iulian Chifu, Adriana Sauliuc, Bogdan Nedea

Centrul de Prevenire a Conflictelor si Early Warning a lansat cartia „Energy Security in the Wider Black Sea Region”, semnata de Iulian Chifu, Adriana Sauliuc si Bogdan Nedea.  Evenimentul a avut loc joi, 16 decembrie 2010, ora 12.00 in Sala Constantin Stere, Senatul Romaniei in prezenta Presedintelui Senatului Romaniei, Mircea Geoana, Vicepresedintelui Senatului Romaniei, Teodor Melescanu si profesorului universitar dr. Cornel Codita.

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Razboiul ruso-georgian

Razboiul ruso-georgian

Authors: Iulian Chifu, Monica Oproiu, Narciz Balasoiu

Pe 6 octombrie 2010, in Holul de Onoare al Universitatii Nationale de Aparare „Carol I” s-a  lansat cartea „Razboiul ruso-georgian” – Iulian Chifu, Monica Oproiu, Narciz Balasoiu. La eveniment a participat si Excelenta Sa Ghirghi Baramidze, vicepremierul Georgiei.

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NATO- NEW STRATEGIC CONCEPT, ROMANIAN APPROACH

NATO- NEW STRATEGIC CONCEPT, ROMANIAN APPROACH

Author: Iulian Chifu

“NATO New Strategic Concept, Romanian Approach” is a book and a study that offers some guidelines, debates proceeding, positions and arguments for the future Romanian mandate in the debate regarding the future Strategic Concept, but also some ideas to the Group of Experts of the Secretary General for drafting the Strategic Concept. It also helps the member states, partners and interested countries to realize the complexity of positions and issues, the concerns inside the Romanian society but also in the partner countries, all influencing the position of Romania.

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